What to expect in the technology, media and telecoms sector?

At Deloitte we publish 10 predictions every year. In light of the current pandemic and its economic implications, all 10 of these had to be updated. Not only has this year been affected, the pandemic will impact 2021’s predictions too.

The current crisis has revealed that how we consume media is drastically influenced by where we are physically. Due to lockdowns, it was thought that consumers would have more time to dive into all kinds of media. But podcast listening hours decreased slightly due to less commuting. Our findings show that audio is strongest when we’re not allowed to use our hands, such as while driving.

Video consumption, however, rose between 40% and 80%. The absence of the daily commute has therefore increased video consumption but decreased in-car audio listening and on-transit print newspaper sales.

Working from home hasn’t led to a drop in productivity as many feared but in fact proven to be quite the opposite. It has been such a success that Siemens has told over 145,000 of its employees that they can work from home 2-3 days a week if they so desire from now on. Less commuting in the long term will see a fall in audio listening of all types, including podcasts. In the US, podcast listening is likely to stay under US$1 billion – down about 10%.

However, as the crisis persists, people are generally avoiding public transport, taxis and ridesharing services, which means that commuters are more likely to use private vehicles instead, spending more time in them due to worsening traffic. In the short term, this may have an offsetting stimulating effect on the quantity of audio consumed.

The two major tech innovations for the media industry are related to 5G mobile networks and 8K television sets. Although 4G speeds are more than adequate for most streaming, 5G will bring even greater speed to consumers and will especially be noticed by those who game on the cloud. The quality of 8K television will be evident on larger screens, thereby justifying its growth in dollar value across global markets.

Despite these innovations, the greatest change will be to media business models. Hundreds of millions of people have signed up for BVOD and AVOD services, which means that there is now more than one way to sell video content; linear TV, SVOD services with no ads and BVOD/AVOD services with ads are now all competing in a fierce market. With the economic implications of Covid-19, BVOD/ AVOD services, which don’t require economic commitments, are becoming increasingly appealing to consumers.

Duncan Stewart, Director of Research at TMT, Deloitte